Lesser Zab is one of the most important tributaries of Tigris River. During the\nlast few decades, the streamflow significantly decreased for long periods followed\nby extensive flood in short periods. This study aimed to quantify the\nimpact of climate change on streamflow at Dokan Dam until year 2050 using\nSWAT model based on the scenario of medium emission (A1B) and five climate\nprojection models. SWAT run using Climate Forecasting System Reanalysis\n(CFSR) was used as weather input data then calibrated and validated\non monthly time step for the period from 1980 to 2013 with Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency\n(NSE) of 0.73 and determination coefficient (R2) 0.73 for calibration\nprocesses. The data of this period is more reliable. The result indicated to a\nsignificant decrease on the projected streamflow until year 2050 with average\nstreamflow for the six climate models of 167 m3/sec in past compared with\nthe observed streamflow of 176.5 m3/sec for the base period (1980-2013). In\naddition, the study shows that most runoffs come from Iranian part of the\nDokan Dam Watershed with 65% of total simulated runoff. It is highly recommended\nto improve the efficiency of water using for current and future\nwater projects to meet the expected water shortage.
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