The purpose of the study is to analyze the trends in the unauthorized transactions quantity and
volume for the funds transfer by individuals through payment cards. The information base is
the official data of the Central Bank of Russia for 2014-2019. To analyze trends and evaluate
changes in the quantity and volume of transactions made without the consent of financial
organizations clients, trend equations are constructed that are characterized by sufficient
reliability. Trends in the volume of unauthorized transactions in the context of the place of
commitment are considered separately: retail organizations, ATMs and CNP transactions, as
well as types of trends. In addition to the trend equations, the Holt-winters model was used to
construct the forecast values of the indicators under consideration, which showed better
results. Trends in the volume of unauthorized transactions in the context of the place of
commitment are highlighted separately: retail organizations, ATMs, and CNP transactions, as
well as types of trends. The analysis showed that stable pattern indicators are still being formed.
Therefore, the creation and implementation of an effective strategy for the development of the
banking sector, in modern conditions, along with the traditional introduction of new, innovative
approaches to risk assessment and management in a specific sphere of activity.
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