As a frequently occurring natural disaster, drought will cause great damage to agricultural\nproduction and the sustainable development of a social economy, and it is vital to reasonably\nevaluate the comprehensive risk level of drought for constructing regional drought-resistant strategies.\nTherefore, to objectively expound the uncertainty of a drought risk system, the precondition cloud\nand maximum entropy principle coupling model (PCMEP) for drought risk assessment is proposed,\nwhich utilizes the principle of maximum entropy to estimate the probability distribution of cloud\ndrops, and the two-dimensional precondition cloud algorithm to determine the certainty degree of\ndrought risk. Moreover, the established PCMEP model is further applied in a drought risk assessment\nstudy in Kunming city covering 1956â??2011, and the results indicate that (1) the probability of drought\nevents for different levels exhibits a slight increasing trend among the 56 historical years; and (2) both\nthe integrated certainty degree and its component of drought risk are more evident, which will be\nmore beneficial to determine the drought risk level. In general, the proposed PCMEP model provides\na new reliable idea to evaluate the comprehensive risk level of drought from a more objective and\nsystematic perspective.
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