Current Issue : January - March Volume : 2012 Issue Number : 1 Articles : 5 Articles
The present study demonstrates the application of artificial neural networks (ANNs) in predicting the weekly spring discharge. The study was based on the weekly spring discharge from a spring located near Ranichauri in Tehri Garhwal district of Uttarakhand, India. Five models were developed for predicting the spring discharge based on a weekly interval using rainfall, evaporation, temperature with a specified lag time. All models were developed both with one and two hidden layers. Each model was developed with many trials by selecting different network architectures and different number of hidden neurons; finally a best predicting model presented against each developed model. The models were trained with three different algorithms, that is, quick-propagation algorithm, batch backpropagation algorithm, and Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm using weekly data from 1999 to 2005. A best model for the simulation was selected from the three presented algorithms using the statistical criteria such as correlation coefficient (R), determination coefficient, or Nash Sutcliff's efficiency (DC). Finally, optimized number of neurons were considered for the best model. Training and testing results revealed that the models were predicting the weekly spring discharge satisfactorily. Based on these criteria, ANN-based model results in better agreement for the computation of spring discharge. LMR models were also developed in the study, and they also gave good results, but, when compared with the ANN methodology, ANN resulted in better optimized values....
It is proposed to use fuzzy similarity in fuzzy decision-making approach to deal with the supplier selection problem in supply chain system. According to the concept of fuzzy TOPSIS earlier methods use closeness coefficient which is defined to determine the ranking order of all suppliers by calculating the distances to both fuzzy positive-ideal solution (FPIS) and fuzzy negative-ideal solution (FNIS) simultaneously. In this paper we propose a new method by doing the ranking using similarity. New proposed method can do ranking with less computations than original fuzzy TOPSIS. We also propose three different cases for selection of FPIS and FNIS and compare closeness coefficient criteria and fuzzy similarity criteria. Numerical example is used to demonstrate the process. Results show that the proposed model is well suited for multiple criteria decision-making for supplier selection. In this paper we also show that the evaluation of the supplier using traditional fuzzy TOPSIS depends highly on FPIS and FNIS, and one needs to select suitable fuzzy ideal solution to get reasonable evaluation....
Rule-based reasoning (RBR) and case-based reasoning (CBR) are two complementary alternatives for building knowledge-based ââ?¬Å?intelligentââ?¬Â decision-support systems. RBR and CBR can be combined in three main ways: RBR first, CBR first, or some interleaving of the two. The NEST system, described in this paper, allows us to invoke both components separately and in arbitrary order. In addition to the traditional network of propositions and compositional rules, NEST also supports binary, nominal, and numeric attributes used for derivation of proposition weights, logical (no uncertainty) and default (no antecedent) rules, context expressions, integrity constraints, and cases. The inference mechanism allows use of both rule-based and case-based reasoning. Uncertainty processing (based on HÃ?¡jek's algebraic theory) allows interval weights to be interpreted as a union of hypothetical cases, and a novel set of combination functions inspired by neural networks has been added. The system is implemented in two versions: stand-alone and web-based client server. A user-friendly editor covering all mentioned features is included....
This paper proposes and evaluates a multiagents system called NORA that predicts emotional attributes from learners' brainwaves within an intelligent tutoring system. The measurements from the electrical brain activity of the learner are combined with information about the learner's emotional attributes. Electroencephalogram was used to measure brainwaves and self-reports to measure the three emotional dimensions: pleasure, arousal, and dominance, the eight emotions occurring during learning: anger, boredom, confusion, contempt curious, disgust, eureka, and frustration, and the emotional valence positive for learning and negative for learning. The system is evaluated on natural data, and it achieves an accuracy of over 63%, significantly outperforming classification using the individual modalities and several other combination schemes....
There is currently a growing body of research examining the effects of the fusion of domain knowledge and data mining. This paper examines the impact of such fusion in a novel way by applying validation techniques and training data to enhance the performance of knowledge-based expert systems. We present an algorithm for tuning an expert system to minimize the expected misclassification cost. The algorithm employs data reserved for training data mining models to determine the decision cutoff of the expert system, in terms of the certainty factor of a prediction, for optimal performance. We evaluate the proposed algorithm and find that tuning the expert system results in significantly lower costs. Our approach could be extended to enhance the performance of any intelligent or knowledge system that makes cost-sensitive business decisions....
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